By Henry Palacci

Chicago, Illinois—From the day that Apple announced its first iPhone, naysayers were convinced the Cupertino firm was tired.  Some predicted the buying fatigue of consumers who had already bought millions of iPods and were now asked to spend unprecedented amounts of cash to pay for a smart phone from a company that had not made one before.  Once Apple delivered numbers of iPhone sales resulting in record profits, we were told that the sales of iPhones were unsustainable.  Never mind that the same people told us that Android based phones were just getting started even though their sales growth rates were even higher than Apple’s.

We’ve written here before about the business focused lens we use to look at Apple and Samsung, for example, placing the emphasis in this comparison on total profits generated, as well as other technical metrics.

The latest crusade of the Apple naysayers is the veritable earthquake that has unseated the company’s stock as the most valuable company since its peak in September 2012.  The problem with the prediction that Apple is the next Nokia is that it disregards the facts of the Jobs-founded company’s latest financial reporting.  The company may not have achieved the same rate of growth as the last five years, but it did deliver even higher profits than at any other time.  Disregarding this is strange indeed.

The very latest complaint from some practiced short-sellers on Wall Street is that Apple is hoarding cash, having accumulated over $135 billion.  Those who cannot imagine what the company could possibly do with this pile of cash find the management of the Cupertino giant totally lacking in competence for allowing this unprecedented pile of cash to build up.

But the beginning of an answer may come in 2013 with the company looking at the strategic alternatives to its historic overdependence on China-based sources of parts and labor.  It is truly edifying that the talking heads in the nation’s purported financial capital speak of geopolitical risk ad nauseam when discussing natural resources such as oil but seem blind to this major risk when looking at Apple and its competitors.

Apple, we would venture, understands the reliance it had to place on China for manufacturing while it was building up its financial muscle but is now set to employ more automated processes in North and South America.  We expect the manufacture of larger items, like an eventual iTV, to be North American-based and the well-established iPad and iPhone product lines to be manufactured in for example, Brazil, nearer its main US and West European markets.

The keys to this include a heating up of the geopolitical tensions between North and South Korea and between Russia, China and Japan, all of which should place a premium on shipping costs through this very strategic sea lane, along which nearly all Apple products used to travel.  While everyone is waiting for Apple to produce a less expensive iPhone for China’s less well heeled masses (while paradoxically ordaining that this very move would doom the company’s margins and future), the additional capacity could very well come from the FoxConn factories being freed up in part by the realignment we would expect towards North and South America.

The news that Apple’s chairman, Tim Cook, attended the President’s State of the Union address suggests that the company’s management may well be closer to a major announcement of its US based focus in manufacturing and jobs.  Some will surely divine in such a move the coming crushing of Apple’s margins for the sake of political affinity.  Rather, we will see yet another move to protect Apple’s future margins and business growth.